AI Gauges Image Impact on Undecideds 

I recently processed the Pennsylvania poll through an AI chat I set up, which objectively and impartially analyzed the  survey. The results are here.  This was a great opportunity to put the AI survey analysis to an objective test with an interesting challenge, the Trump Campaign social media post.  The key to obtaining accurate results is to ensure the input information is free from bias. The second key is to guide the chatbot in a way that it can understand the questions asked and provide a legitimate work product.

I am posting my conversation with my AI assistant which I have named, PoliAI.  Primarily due to brevity purposes, I will summarize the prompts I used. However, if you are interested in reading the actual questions asked, just contact me.  Below is the conversation I had with my pal, Poli AI:

SS: I am going to upload an image that was posted on X (which is a social media site, formerly called Twitter). The image was posted by Donald Trump's political campaign. First, can you describe the image to me?

AI Poli: The image you uploaded is a political campaign post from Donald Trump's team on X (formerly Twitter). It contains two contrasting images side by side with the following text at the top:

• Top Text: "Import the third world. Become the third world."

Below this text are two images:

1. Left Image:

   • Shows a clean, well-kept suburban neighborhood with neatly trimmed bushes, American flags on porches, and well-maintained homes.

   • The caption below reads: "YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER TRUMP."

2. Right Image:

   • Depicts a crowded, chaotic, and seemingly distressed scene with a group of predominantly Black and possibly migrant individuals sitting closely together in what appears to be a rundown area.

   • The caption below reads: "YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER KAMALA."

The post is clearly intended to draw a stark contrast between the perceived outcomes of having Trump in office versus Kamala Harris, using provocative imagery to suggest a decline in neighborhood quality under Harris's leadership. The image has gathered significant engagement, indicated by thousands of likes, retweets, and comments.

SS: Great. The statement by the Trump campaign which is above the image says, "import the third world".

AI Poli: The statement "Import the third world" placed above the image is a politically charged and provocative phrase. It appears to be implying that policies associated with Kamala Harris, or more broadly, Democratic immigration policies, would lead to an influx of immigrants from developing countries, which the campaign is derogatorily referring to as the "third world."

The phrase, combined with the imagery in the post, suggests that such immigration would negatively impact American neighborhoods, leading to deterioration and decline, as depicted in the right-side image labeled "YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER KAMALA." The left-side image labeled "YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER TRUMP" is meant to represent stability and prosperity, contrasting the two scenarios.

This statement and the accompanying imagery are designed to appeal to voters who are concerned about immigration and its potential effects on their communities, using fear-based rhetoric to highlight a stark contrast between the outcomes of electing Trump versus Harris.

SS: Analyze how the image and phrase might influence undecided voters, considering polling results. Identify issues that affect their reaction and determine if it leads to a net gain or loss in support. 

AI Poli: Given the context of the undecided voters in Pennsylvania from the New York Times/Siena College poll, we can infer how they might react to the image and phrase "Import the third world."

Key Issues for Undecided Voters

1. The Economy (including jobs and the stock market) - 20%

2. Immigration - 13%

3. Abortion - 12%

4. State of Democracy/Corruption - 10%

5. Character/Competence of Candidate - 8%

Potential Reactions to the Image and Phrase

1. Immigration (13% Priority for Undecided Voters):

   • The image and phrase directly target concerns around immigration, which is the second most important issue for undecided voters. This suggests that some undecided voters who prioritize immigration and who are concerned about border security and illegal immigration might respond positively to the image, seeing it as reinforcing their fears about the potential consequences of more lenient immigration policies.

2. Character/Competence of Candidate (8% Priority):

   • The aggressive and divisive nature of the image and messaging could backfire with voters who are concerned about character and competence. Undecided voters who are sensitive to a candidate's tone, and who are looking for a more unifying and stable leadership style, might find the imagery off-putting, viewing it as fearmongering or racially insensitive.

3. State of Democracy/Corruption (10% Priority):

   • Voters concerned about the state of democracy might see this kind of messaging as undermining democratic values by promoting division and fear. This could lead to a negative reaction, particularly if they are seeking a candidate who will uphold democratic norms and unite the country.

4. Economic Concerns (20% Priority):

   • While the image primarily focuses on immigration, the implicit message is that immigration could negatively impact the economy by bringing about neighborhood decline. Undecided voters concerned with the economy might be swayed by this argument if they link economic stability with stricter immigration policies. However, those more focused on broader economic issues may not find this imagery convincing or relevant to their top concerns.

Net Impact on Undecided Voters

• Potential Gains: The Trump campaign could see gains among undecided voters who are particularly concerned about immigration and border security. These voters might view the image as reinforcing their concerns and aligning with Trump’s tougher stance on immigration.

• Potential Losses: On the other hand, the Trump campaign could lose ground among undecided voters who prioritize character, democratic values, or are turned off by negative, fear-based campaigning. This imagery might be seen as divisive or exploitative, which could push these voters toward Harris or away from Trump.

Conclusion

The net impact on undecided voters is likely mixed. The image could reinforce existing fears among a subset of voters, potentially drawing them toward Trump. However, it might also alienate others who are uncomfortable with the tone of the messaging or who are looking for a more positive and unifying campaign. Overall, the effectiveness of this image and phrase will depend on how much weight undecided voters place on immigration relative to their concerns about character and democratic integrity. The balance of these reactions could determine whether the image results in a net gain or loss for Trump among undecided voters.

SS: Purely based upon the poll results and your analysis, can you analyze how male vs. female undecided voters might react?

AI Poli: Based on the poll results and demographic analysis, here's how male versus female undecided voters might react to the image and messaging:

Male Undecided Voters

• Immigration Focus: Male voters, especially those without a college degree, tend to be more receptive to strong stances on immigration. Since immigration is a significant concern among undecided voters, the image's focus on immigration and neighborhood security might resonate more with undecided male voters. They might view the imagery as a validation of their concerns about border security and the impact of immigration on their communities.

• Economic Concerns: Men are often more focused on the economy, and while the image primarily addresses immigration, it indirectly ties immigration to economic outcomes. This could appeal to undecided male voters who are worried about job competition and economic stability.

Likely Reaction: More Positive – Undecided male voters are likely to react more favorably to the image, seeing it as aligning with their concerns about immigration and its potential economic impacts.

Female Undecided Voters

• Character and Competence: Women, particularly suburban women, are often more concerned with the character and competence of the candidate. The aggressive and fear-based nature of the image might be off-putting to these voters, who might prefer a more positive, unifying message. The focus on divisive rhetoric could potentially alienate them.

• Social Issues: Female voters, especially those concerned about social justice, equality, and healthcare, might view the imagery as an oversimplification of complex issues. Additionally, the fearmongering tone might be seen as insensitive, pushing them further away from Trump and toward a candidate who they perceive as more compassionate and inclusive.

Likely Reaction: More Negative – Undecided female voters might react negatively to the image, particularly if they are looking for a candidate who demonstrates empathy and focuses on bringing the country together rather than dividing it.

Conclusion

• Male Undecided Voters: More likely to be swayed positively by the image due to its alignment with concerns about immigration and economic stability.

• Female Undecided Voters: More likely to react negatively, particularly if they prioritize character, social justice, and a more inclusive approach to leadership.

Overall, this suggests that while the image may appeal to undecided male voters, it could alienate undecided female voters, potentially resulting in a gender divide in reactions to this type of messaging.

SS: Thank you. Are there any other demographical or poll results that more likely than not should be considered in analyzing the unlikely voter response?

AI Poli: In analyzing how undecided voters might respond to the image and messaging, it's also important to consider the following demographic and poll results:

**1. Education Level

• Impact: Voters without a college degree are generally more supportive of Trump, especially on issues like immigration and the economy. The image might resonate more strongly with this group, reinforcing their concerns about the impact of immigration on their communities. However, undecided voters with higher education levels might be more critical of the simplistic and fear-based messaging.

**2. Region

• Impact: Urban vs. suburban/rural voters might respond differently to this image. Urban voters, who are more diverse and typically lean Democratic, might find the image off-putting or racially insensitive. Suburban voters, particularly in areas where concerns about safety and property values are prevalent, might find the messaging more appealing.

**3. Race and Ethnicity

• Impact: White undecided voters might be more receptive to the image, especially if they are concerned about immigration. However, minority voters, particularly Black and Hispanic undecided voters, might view the image as a negative stereotype or an attack on their communities, which could push them away from Trump.

**4. Political Leaning

• Impact: Even among undecided voters, there are likely leanings toward one party or another. Those leaning Republican might be more positively influenced by the image, while those leaning Democrat could find it off-putting. Independents, who prioritize issues over party loyalty, might be split based on their specific concerns.

**5. Previous Voting Behavior

• Impact: Voters who previously supported Trump might respond favorably to the image, as it reinforces the themes of his 2016 campaign. However, voters who are genuinely undecided and concerned about Trump's divisive rhetoric might view the image as a reason to consider Harris instead.

Overall Consideration

While the image and messaging may resonate with certain demographic groups (e.g., white, non-college-educated, suburban males), it risks alienating others (e.g., women, minorities, urban voters). Understanding the nuanced reactions across these demographics is crucial for predicting the net impact of such a campaign strategy on undecided voters.

SS: Please provide a breakdown of the demographical profile of unlikely voters from the poll and your analysis, including percentages for political affiliation, education, issue prioritization, and how the image might impact undecided voters based on probability. 

AI Poli: To quantify the demographic profile of the undecided voters based on the New York Times/Siena College poll and the previous analysis, here’s a breakdown:

1. Party Affiliation/Leaning

• Republican: 3% of undecided voters.

• Democrat: 3% of undecided voters.

• Independent: 5% of undecided voters.

• Leaning towards Trump: Independents who prioritize immigration and the economy might lean towards Trump. This could be estimated around 2-3% of the undecided voters, based on the significance of these issues.

2. Education

• No College Degree: 9% of undecided voters.

• College Degree: 4% of undecided voters.

  • White Voters Without a College Degree: Likely a significant portion of the 9% without a college degree, potentially around 6-7%.

  • Minority Voters Without a College Degree: The remainder of the 9% without a college degree, potentially around 2-3%.

3. Age

• 18-29 years: 6% of undecided voters.

• 30-44 years: 8% of undecided voters.

• 45-64 years: 5% of undecided voters.

• 65+ years: 5% of undecided voters.

4. Race/Ethnicity

• White: 5% of undecided voters.

• Black: 4% of undecided voters.

• Hispanic: 5% of undecided voters.

• Other Races: 5% of undecided voters.

5. Region

• City Areas: 6% of undecided voters.

• Philadelphia Suburbs: 5% of undecided voters.

• Rural/Small Towns: 5% of undecided voters.

6. Issue Prioritization Among Undecided Voters

• The Economy (including jobs and the stock market): 20%

• Immigration: 13%

• Abortion: 12%

• State of Democracy/Corruption: 10%

• Character/Competence of Candidate: 8%

Mathematical Probability Analysis

Likely Positive Impact (based on demographic alignment with Trump):

1. Immigration as a Priority: 13% of undecided voters might respond positively, especially those without a college degree and leaning Republican.

2. White Non-College-Educated Males: Potentially around 6-7% of undecided voters. This group is likely to be more receptive to the message due to the combination of immigration concerns and economic worries.

3. Suburban Voters Concerned with Security: Suburban voters (5%) who are concerned about safety and immigration might find the image persuasive.

Likely Negative Impact (based on demographic alignment with Harris or concern about divisiveness):

1. Women and Younger Voters: Combined, these groups represent about 14% of undecided voters (6% aged 18-29 and 8% aged 30-44). They might react negatively to the fear-based message, particularly if they prioritize character, competence, and democracy.

2. Minority Voters: Around 9% (4% Black, 5% Hispanic) could find the message racially insensitive and be pushed away from Trump.

3. Urban Voters: The 6% of undecided voters in city areas might view the image as divisive or out of touch with their realities.

Conclusion

• Positive Reaction: Potentially 18-21% of undecided voters (primarily male, white, non-college-educated, suburban) might respond positively to the image, finding it aligns with their concerns about immigration and the economy.

• Negative Reaction: Potentially 19-22% of undecided voters (primarily women, younger, minority, and urban voters) might be turned off by the image, viewing it as fearmongering or divisive.

Given this distribution, the image may have a mixed impact with a slight lean towards a negative net effect, particularly due to its potential to alienate key demographic groups like women, minorities, and younger voters who are pivotal in swinging undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

THE TAKEAWAYS

AI has the potential to transform how we analyze and create content across various industries and professions. Generative AI is particularly effective in evaluating visuals and messages, which helps in identifying what resonates with audiences. This capability is especially valuable in the political and issue-oriented sectors. The key takeaways from the article show how industry and political professionals can utilize AI for tasks such as analyzing polls and related content:

1. Targeted Messaging: AI enables precise analysis of images, speeches, news articles, political ads, and other content to determine what resonates with political audiences, like voters. This analysis allows for tailoring content for maximum impact.

2. Data-Driven Insights: AI provides deep insights into voter behavior and preferences, assisting campaigns in making informed decisions in real time.

3. Agile Strategies: AI speeds up the assessment of campaign visuals' effectiveness, facilitating rapid adjustments and more agile strategic implementations.

4. Enhanced Voter Engagement: Understanding the emotional triggers influencing audiences, including undecided voters in specific locations, can help in crafting more compelling and engaging campaign materials.

5. Predictive Analytics: Forecasting audience reactions to specific content becomes crucial in staying ahead of the competition, a capability that AI strengthens.

6. Customization and Personalization: AI enables the creation of personalized content that speaks directly to different audience segments, increasing the likelihood of influencing the targeted groups.

7. Strategic Advantage: AI can offer a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.